GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY

The slew of President Trump’s new executive orders include a temporary federal hiring freeze, the revoking of DEI-related directives, and the end of remote work for all federal employees (intended, according to Elon Musk, to provoke a welcome ‘wave of voluntary terminations’). Trump also plans to move 100,000 government jobs out of Washington by relocating government agencies to other states.

In a 2015 chapter, CHESTER A. NEWLAND traces the federal government’s budget and workforce trends from the New Deal Era to the Obama years:

“In 1962, the federal workforce stood at 5.3 million, climbing to 6.6 million by 1969, which reflected the military build-up in Vietnam. At the height of the US troop build-up in Vietnam in 1969, there were 3.6 million uniformed military personnel, accounting for almost 55 percent of total federal employment. Since then, the federal workforce has been trending downward although there has been modest growth in civilian employment in some years, including the 2004–2012 period. In a report on the latest uptick in federal employment, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted: ‘While the federal civilian workforce grew in size from 2004 to 2012, most of the growth was concentrated in three federal agencies and was driven by the need to address some of the nation’s pressing priorities.’ These agencies were Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs.

It is important to note that the federal government now spends more on contractors than it does on employees. While federal employment outside these three departments has been relatively flat, the number of workers paid as contractors and subcontractors has grown sharply, on a scale never before seen. In fiscal year 2011, for example, the Department of Defense spent $184 billion on contract employees and all other agencies spent $126 billion on contractors, for a total of $310 billion. In contrast, total payments to federal civilian employees (excluding the Postal Service), including salaries and benefits, was about $240 billion that same year (Schwellenbach 2014).”

+  “Incoming senior Trump administration officials this month also had questioned some career civil servants about who they voted for in the 2024 election, their political contributions and whether they have made social media posts that could be considered incriminating by Trump’s team.” Zeke Miller and Aamer Madhani on the White House sidelining 160 NSC staffers. Link.

+  See the National Academy of Public Administration’s 2024 playbook for improving federal agency organizational health. Link. “Not only is working in DEI sufficient grounds for dismissal, but failure to rat out such scoundrels is grounds for dismissal, too.” By Harold Meyerson. Link.

+  “Presidents have long used executive orders to reduce the size of the federal workforce. Trump’s order is consequential but not particularly unusual.” By Nick Bednar. Link. “What proponents of government efficiency, broadly speaking, fail to elaborate on is this central truth—all efficient systems fail, be they biological, physical, economic, or social.” By Samuel Workman. Link.

NEW RESEARCHERS

Debt financing

TIANYI WU is pursuing a PhD in public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, and is a pre-doctoral Research Fellow at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. In a recent working paper, coauthored by Yunnan Chen, she examines Chinese commercial creditors’ intensfying overseas lending in Africa.

From the paper:

“The diversification of Chinese creditors raises questions over the underlying motivations: specifically, why African nations are accepting, and Chinese entities are offering, less favorable and more expensive credit arrangements. One potential explanation is that, by diversifying the sources of credit, China may be seeking to spread potential financial exposure across a broader spectrum of lenders, thereby reducing the concentration of risk in any single institution or project. This diversification may reflect an increasing market-oriented rationale among various Chinese financiers. Policy banks, having accumulated substantial balance sheets over the years, have become increasingly cautious in their lending practices. In contrast, commercial creditors, as later entrants to the market, are actively seeking new opportunities for expansion. The dynamics illustrate divergent strategic orientations within China’s financial landscape, where policy banks, with their substantial balance sheets, increasingly focus on risk management, while commercial creditors, as newer market entrants, actively pursue growth in less explored markets.”

+ + + 

+  “Manley realized that even though countries like Jamaica had gained constitutional independence, they remained wedded to a world economy structured by colonialism.” New, Will Kendall and Neil Warner interview Professor Anthony Bogues on the occasion of Michael Manley’s centenary. Link. 

+  “By weakening unions, the 2017 changes to Brazilian labor law have had the effect of relaxing health and safety standards for workers, reducing inspections of employers, and making it more difficult for workers to access Brazil’s Labor Court.” New on PW, Andréia Galvão on Brazil’s 2017 labor reform and the changing stakes in the trade union movement. Available in EN and PT.

+  In January 2025 Phenomenal World officially launched its Chinese column as part of Chartbook’s Chinese edition. In collaboration with Qing Wang and Adam Tooze, Phenomenal World articles will be translated for a Chinese-speaking audience. See more at Chartbook China or WeChat. Link, link.

+  “We estimate a 1.5 percentage point increase in homeownership, a 19 point increase in credit score, a $756 increase in auto debt, and a 1.9 percentage point reduction in credit utilization, among other outcomes.” See a new research paper on student debt cancellation from JFI’s Higher Education Finance team, and see Marketwatch’s in-depth coverage of its findings. Link.

+  See articles by Juan Diego Quesada and Forrest Hylton on the emerging conflict between the ELN and the FARC in north-east Colombia, which has displaced thousands and sparked tensions between President Petro and President Maduro. Link, link. And read Jerónimo Ríos Sierra’s analysis of Petro’s peace negotiations from last February, available in English and Spanish. 

+  “While some bloat is to be expected with any massive government undertaking, such public-private initiatives also serve to hollow out the state. Government is underwriting its future incapacity. And middlemen breed middlemen.” Brent Cebul on the technocratic success and political defeat of Biden’s green initiatives. Link. 

+  Katie J. Wells and Funda Ustek Spilda on on-demand nursing companies and the rise of personalized pay. Link.

+  “In the fight against inflation, there are real alternatives to relying on monetary policy alone. Governments can step up and protect citizens against cost shocks in times of disasters, bolstering not only the economy but also the ruling party’s chances at the ballot box.” By Isabella Weber. Link.

+  “While Kojève is often cast as the intellectual puppeteer of the plan, his role was less that of mastermind than of opportunistic dramatist, weaponizing a concept whose origins lay not in Paris, but in the meticulous work of German delegates in the preparatory committees of the EEC going back to the late 1950s. At a critical juncture, Kojève planted an article in the New York Herald Tribune, framing écrêtement as the French response to American proposals. At the time, the idea had no official backing, but the article forced it onto the agenda. ‘Is this French policy?’ Rodney Grey, an incredulous Canadian delegate, asked Kojève after reading the paper in May 1963. ‘No,’ he replied, ‘but it will be.’ This theatrical move exemplified Kojève’s knack for shifting the terrain of debate at opportune moments. Washington refused to budge on écrêtement…From that point onward, it became untenable for the US representatives to deny the glaring asymmetry between American tariffs on certain industrial goods and the comparatively modest levies of the Common Market. Kojève’s tactics propelled these disparities to the forefront of the Kennedy Round negotiations.” By Danilo Scholz. Link.

Each week we highlight research from a graduate student, postdoc, or early-career professor. Send us recommendations: editorial@jainfamilyinstitute.org